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What is unclear is what effect Amazon’s withdrawal and the pro-Ulrich independent expenditure will have on the race, if any.
So I would still bet on Jumaane, but I would keep an eye on Ulrich.
Sid Davidoff: It’s a very tough race to call, with 17 candidates on the ballot.
Conventional wisdom is that the electorate will consist mainly of progressives.
If that’s true, it certainly benefits Jumaane and others.
Since the days of Mark Green and Rudy Giuliani, New Yorkers seem to relish a little scuffle on the City Hall steps between the mayor and public advocate.
Jumaane has also been a thorn in the side of Mayor Bill de Blasio for some time now.
Sid Davidoff: After name recognition, the key factors are field organization, support from major unions and social media, particularly field organization.
With a nonpartisan special election in February, turnout will likely be very low. As a result, the campaign that best pulls its voters to the polls will have an edge.
Whoever wins will likely win with a small margin, so every vote counts.
Lupe Todd-Medina: The biggest factor is going to be voter turnout – and who turns out.
Ben Max: It’s obvious, but: who actually gets supporters out to vote on Feb. Williams’ 2018 run and 2019 endorsements are likely to play a major role here, especially the groups activating their member lists.Tags: Adult Dating, affair dating, sex dating